First of all, a little 2007 history. For all we have learned about it, 2007 ended up being a record year for butterflies and other insects. Some say the best year in 20 years. Typically that's a good thing and a bad thing. The natural world operates in cycles. Increasing and decreasing cycles. These cycles happen in many if not all species of insects, birds, animals, etc.

2008 is probably the worst year for butterflies in 20 years. Here you have a boom and a bust. There are several theories and for sure there are several causes. Unfortunately mankind is so out of touch with the real world that we just struggle to understand and make theories, ideas and SWAGS. (Sophisticate Wild Ass Guesses).

I know there was an abundance of butterflies last year. I know there was an abundance of other insects last year as well. There was an abundance of butterfly predators, because there was an abundance of butterflies. It's part of the natural chain of events. I believe that part of the fact this year is so bad, is because last year was so good. Cycles of boom and bust....

I have heard that it is too dry this year, but in our county, the rainfall is still above the average for Jan., Feb., Mar, & Apr. I would say that rainfall is not the key for Smith County. I have heard that due to the abundance last year, the predators of butterflies (more like caterpillars), decimated the numbers in fall and due to that, we have a bust year now. I believe that's part of the equation. However, I saw many butterflies very early in the year. In looking at my records, I see good numbers of many species in March and Large numbers in April. This leads me to believe that many pupae had to make it till spring, for there to be so many early butterflies.

Around April 20th. the numbers drastically decreased and by the first of May it seemed that butterflies never existed. None could be found. Still we only find handfuls here and there. It has affected all species, not just a few. What could decimate the numbers so quickly, when it was looking to be a good year?

Here's my take and it's only conjecture formed by the thoughts of a total amateur. It's not substantiated, except in my own convoluted logic, but it's my only answer. Early butterflies in Feb., Mar. & early Apr., must have needed to find host plants, to lay eggs. The species has to reproduce, since longevity for most butterflies is very short. I see that in the time period of Feb.-Mar. that plants bloomed, host plants grew, things seemed to come early, too early this year.... Then there were two freezes, one of which was a hard freeze and lasted for a day or two. Afterwards, the flowers died. The host plants died. Growth halted and everything had to start all over again. The plants did that, they grew again and wild flowers are all over, host plants are out, but no butterflies......  I believe that the "first batches" of butterflies never succeeded in continuing the species, because of the freezes, which would have killed off the new eggs and new caterpillars. The death of the plants, from the freezes would kill off the caterpillars and the remaining butterflies never were around or able to come back with more eggs. A few survived, just a few and now we have a bust year.

Those are my thoughts on what happened, but I am only a layman, not an expert. I also believe that it will take 10-20 years to ever see a boom year again and with what mankind is doing in this area, it may well never happen, because of the tremendous loss of habitat.....  In other words, for myself, I think I was very lucky to have experienced last year's record numbers, because I will never see that again, in my lifetime... I also believe that there may be some species that will not return to this area at all. It is possible that the species who were already "on the edge" in this area, may be gone permanently...

Remember also, it's all a chain of events. This has and will affect other insects, birds, etc. The events will progress over the next couple of years, most likely, with reduced numbers of birds in our area. I already see reduced numbers of moths, bees, grasshoppers and other insects. It will absolutely have an affect throughout the food chain!

Justin 6/26/2008